Recent Publications by Group Members (click titles for journal link)
2018
Stephens, P.A. (2018) Ecology: Luck, Scarcity, and the Fate of Populations. Current Biology 28, R1384-1386
Howard, C., Flather, C.H. & Stephens, P.A. (2018) What drives at-risk species richness? Environmental factors are more influential than anthropogenic factors or biological traits. Conservation Letters e12624
Burgess, M.D., Smith, K.W., Leech, D., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Branston, C.J., Briggs, K., Clark, J.R., Evans, K.L., du Feu, C.R., Nager, R., Sheldon, B.C., Smith, J., Whytock, R.C., Willis, S.G. and Phillimore, A.B. (2018) Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time. Nature Ecology and Evolution.
Cusack, J. J., Duthie, B., Rakotonarivo, S., Pozo, R. A., Mason, T.H.E. et al. (2018) Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe. Conservation Letters.
Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., Tobias, J. A., Sheard, C., Butchart, S. H., & Willis, S. G. (2018) Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds. Proc. R. Soc. B, 285(1873), 20172329.
Mason, T. H. E., Keane, A., Redpath, S.M., & Bunnefeld, N. (2018) The changing environment of conservation conflict: geese and farming in Scotland. Journal of Applied Ecology
Hsing, P.-Y., Bradley, S.P., Kent, V.T., Hill, R.A., Smith, G.C., Whittingham, M.J., Cokill, J., Crawley, D., MammalWeb Volunteers, Stephens, P.A. (2018) Economical crowdsourcing for camera trap image classification. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, 4, 361-374 https://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.84
Ferretti, F., Lovari, S. & Stephens, P.A. (2018) Joint effects of weather and interspecific competition on foraging behaviour and survival of a mountain herbivore. Current Zoology, zoy032
Pettorelli, N., Barlow, J., Stephens, P.A., Durant, S.M., Connor, B., Schulte to Buhne, H., Sandom, C.J., Wentworth, J. & du Toit, J.T. (2018) Making rewilding fit for policy. Journal of Applied Ecology 55, 1114-1125
Barlow, J., Stephens, P.A., Bode, M., Cadotte, M.W., Lucas, K., Newton, E., Nunez, M.A. & Pettorelli, N. (2018) On the extinction of the single-authored paper: The causes and consequences of increasingly collaborative applied ecological research. Journal of Applied Ecology 55, 1-4
2017
Zhao, Q.*, Mason T.H.E.*, Azeria, E.T., Le Blanc, M.L., Lemaître, J., Barnier, F., Bichet, O., & Fortin, D. (2017) Robust predictive performance of indicator species despite different co-occurrence patterns of birds in natural and managed boreal forests. Forest Ecology and Management 397, 108-116 *equal contribution
Mason, T. H. E., & Fortin, D. (2017) Functional responses in animal movement explain spatial heterogeneity in animal-habitat relationships. Journal of Animal Ecology
Mason, T. H. E., Brivio F., Stephens, P.A., Apollonio, M., & Grignolio, S. (2017) The behavioral trade-off between thermoregulation and foraging in a heat-sensitive species. Behavioral Ecology
Dawson, W., Moser, D., van Kleunen, M., Kreft, H., Pergl, J., Pysek, P., Weigelt, P., Winter, M., Lenzner, B., Blackburn, T. M., Dyer, E. E., Cassey, P., Scrivens, S. L., Economo, E. P., Guenard, B., Capinha, C., Seebens, H., Garcia-Diaz, P., Nentwig, W., Garcia-Berthou, E., Casal, C., Mandrak, N. E., Fuller, P., Meyer, C. & Essl, F. (2017). Global hotspots and correlates of alien species richness across taxonomic groups. Nature Ecology and Evolution 1: 0186.
Voskamp, A., Baker, D.J., Stephens, P.A., Valdes, P. & Willis, S.G. (2017) Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds. Journal of Biogeography. DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12916
Cadotte, M.W., Barlow, J., Nunez, M.A., Pettorelli, & Stephens, P.A. (2017) Solving environmental problems in the Anthropocene: the need to bring novel theoretical advances into the applied ecology fold. Journal of Applied Ecology 54, 1-6.
2016
Bagchi, R., Hole, D.G., Butchart, S.H.M., Collingwood, Y.C., Fishpool, L., Plumptre, A., Owiunji, I., Mugabe, H. & Willis, S.G. (2016) Forecasting potential routes for movement of endemic birds among important sites for biodiversity in the Albertine Rift under projected climate change. Ecography
Baker, D.J., Hartley, I., Pearce-Higgins, J., Jones, R. & Willis, S.G. (2016) Neglected issues in using weather and climate information in ecology. Diversity and Distributions
Baker, D. J., Hartley, A. J., Butchart, S. H. M. & Willis, S. G. (2016), Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 22, 2392-2404. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13273
Sanderson, F.J., Pople, R.G., Ieronymidou, C., Burfield, I.J. Gregory, R.D., Willis, S.G., Howard, C., Stephens, P.A., Beresford, A.E. & Donald, P.F. (2016) Assessing the performance of EU nature legislation in protecting target bird species in an era of climate change. Conservation Letters, 9, 172–180. DOI: 10.1111/conl.12196.
Stephens, P.A., L. R. Mason, R. E. Green, R. D. Gregory, J. R. Sauer, J. Alison, A. Aunins, L. Brotons, S. H. M. Butchart, T. Campedelli, T. Chodkiewicz, P. Chylarecki, O. Crowe, J. Elts, V. Escandell, R. P. B. Foppen, H. Heldbjerg, S. Herrando, M. Husby, F. Jiguet, A. Lehikoinen, A. Lindstrom, D. G. Noble, J.-Y. Paquet, J. Reif, T. Sattler, T. Szep, N. Teufelbauer, S. Trautmann, A. J. van Strien, C. A. M. van Turnhout, P. Vorisek, S. G. Willis. (2016) Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents. Science, 352 (6281), 84-87. DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4858
Davis, M.L., Stephens, P.A. & Kjellander, P. (in press) Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change. Journal of Wildlife Management. doi: 10.1002/jwmg.1029.
Stephens, P.A. (2016) Population Viability Analysis. Oxford Bibliographies in Ecology. Ed. David Gibson. New York: Oxford University Press, 25/02/2016. doi: 10.1093/OBO/9780199830060-0142.
Barlow, J., Cadotte, M., Newton, E., Pettorelli, N., Plane, A., Stephens, P.A. & Whittingham, M.J. (2016) Achieving and communicating globally relevant applied ecological research. Journal of Applied Ecology 53, 1-4.
2015
Stephens, P.A. (2015) Land sparing, land sharing, and the fate of Africa’s lions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 112, 14753–14754.
Palmer, G., Stephens, P.A., Ward, A.I. & Willis, S.G. (2015) Nationwide trophic cascades: changes in avian community structure driven by ungulates. Nature: Scientific Reports, 5:15602, doi: 10.1038/srep15601.
Howard, C., Stephens, P.A., Pearce-Higgins, J., Gregory, R.A. & Willis, S.G. (2015) The drivers of avian abundance: patterns in the relative importance of climate and land use. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 1249-1260.
Baker, D. Burgess, N.D. Butchart, S.H.M., Carr, J., Hartley, A., Smith, R., Belle, E. & Willis, S.G. (2015) Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West Africa protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections. Diversity and Distributions, 21, 991-1003. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12337.
Willis, S.G., Foden, W.B., Baker, D. Belle, E. Burgess, N.D., Carr, J., Doswald, N., Garcia, R., Hartley, A., Hof, C., Newbold, T., Rahbek, C., Smith, R., Visconti, P., Young, B. & Butchart, S.H.M. (2015) Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution modelling and traits based approaches. Biological Conservation, 190, 167–178. DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.05.001.
Bassi, E. Willis, S.G., Passilongo, D., Mattioli, L. & Apollonio, M. (2015) Predicting the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) breeding areas in a mountainous region of central Italy. PLoS One, 10(6): e0124698. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124698.
Pacifici, M., Foden, W.B., Visconti, P., Watson, J.E.M., Butchart, S.H.M., Kovacs, K.M., Scheffers, B.R., Hole, D.G. Martin, T.G., Akçakaya, H.R., Corlett, R.T., Huntley, B., Bickford, D., Carr, J.A., Hoffmann, A.A., Midgley, G.F., Pearce-Kelly, P., Pearson, R.G., Williams, S.E., Willis, S.G., Young, B. & Rondini, C. (2014) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change Nature Climate Change, 5, 215-224.
Hindle, B.J., Kerr, C., Richards, S.A. & Willis, S.G. (2015) Topographical variation reduces phenological mismatch between a butterfly and its nectar source. Journal of Insect Conservation, 19, 227-236.
Stephens, P.A., Pettorelli, N., Barlow, J., Whittingham, M.J. & Cadotte, M.W. (2015) Management by proxy? The use of indices in applied ecology. Journal of Applied Ecology, 52, 1-6.
2014
Devenish-Nelson, E.S., Richards, S.A., Harris, S., Soulsbury, C.D. & Stephens, P.A. (2014) Demonstrating frequency-dependent transmission of sarcoptic mange in red foxes. Biology Letters. 10: 20140524.
Mason, T.H.E., Apollonio, M. Chirichella, R., Willis, S.G. & Stephens, P.A. (2014) Environmental change and long-term body mass declines in an alpine mammal. Frontiers in Zoology. 11: 69.
Runge, C.A., Martin, T.G., Possingham, H.P., Willis, S.G. & Fuller, R.A. (2014) Conserving mobile species. Frontiers in Ecology and
Evolution. 12: 395-402.
Nowak, K., le Roux, A., Richards, S.A., Scheijen, C., & Hill, R. (2014) Human observers impact habituated samango monkeys’ perceived landscape of fear. Behavioral Ecology. 25: 1199-1204.
Mason, T.H.E., Stephens, P.A., Apollonio, M. & Willis, S.G. (2014) Predicting potential responses to future climate change in an alpine
ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12641
Howard, C., Stephens, P.A., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Gregory, R.D. & Willis, S.G. (2014) Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance. Methods in Ecology and Evolution doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12184.
Collingham, Huntley, Altwegg, Barnard, Beveridge, Gregory, Mason, Oschadleus, Simmons, Willis & Green (2014), Prediction of mean adult survival rates of southern African birds from demographic and ecological covariates. Ibis, 156: 741–754.
Stephens, P.A., Houston, A.I., Harding, K.C., Boyd, I.L. & McNamara, J.M. 2014. Capital and income breeding: the role of food supply. Ecology. 95: 882–896.
Lawson, C.R., Hodgson, G.A., Wilson, R.J. & Richards, S.A. (2014) Prevalence, thresholds, and the performance of presence-absence models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5: 54-64.
Stephens, P.A. (2018) Ecology: Luck, Scarcity, and the Fate of Populations. Current Biology 28, R1384-1386
Howard, C., Flather, C.H. & Stephens, P.A. (2018) What drives at-risk species richness? Environmental factors are more influential than anthropogenic factors or biological traits. Conservation Letters e12624
Burgess, M.D., Smith, K.W., Leech, D., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Branston, C.J., Briggs, K., Clark, J.R., Evans, K.L., du Feu, C.R., Nager, R., Sheldon, B.C., Smith, J., Whytock, R.C., Willis, S.G. and Phillimore, A.B. (2018) Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time. Nature Ecology and Evolution.
Cusack, J. J., Duthie, B., Rakotonarivo, S., Pozo, R. A., Mason, T.H.E. et al. (2018) Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe. Conservation Letters.
Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., Tobias, J. A., Sheard, C., Butchart, S. H., & Willis, S. G. (2018) Flight range, fuel load and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds. Proc. R. Soc. B, 285(1873), 20172329.
Mason, T. H. E., Keane, A., Redpath, S.M., & Bunnefeld, N. (2018) The changing environment of conservation conflict: geese and farming in Scotland. Journal of Applied Ecology
Hsing, P.-Y., Bradley, S.P., Kent, V.T., Hill, R.A., Smith, G.C., Whittingham, M.J., Cokill, J., Crawley, D., MammalWeb Volunteers, Stephens, P.A. (2018) Economical crowdsourcing for camera trap image classification. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, 4, 361-374 https://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.84
Ferretti, F., Lovari, S. & Stephens, P.A. (2018) Joint effects of weather and interspecific competition on foraging behaviour and survival of a mountain herbivore. Current Zoology, zoy032
Pettorelli, N., Barlow, J., Stephens, P.A., Durant, S.M., Connor, B., Schulte to Buhne, H., Sandom, C.J., Wentworth, J. & du Toit, J.T. (2018) Making rewilding fit for policy. Journal of Applied Ecology 55, 1114-1125
Barlow, J., Stephens, P.A., Bode, M., Cadotte, M.W., Lucas, K., Newton, E., Nunez, M.A. & Pettorelli, N. (2018) On the extinction of the single-authored paper: The causes and consequences of increasingly collaborative applied ecological research. Journal of Applied Ecology 55, 1-4
2017
Zhao, Q.*, Mason T.H.E.*, Azeria, E.T., Le Blanc, M.L., Lemaître, J., Barnier, F., Bichet, O., & Fortin, D. (2017) Robust predictive performance of indicator species despite different co-occurrence patterns of birds in natural and managed boreal forests. Forest Ecology and Management 397, 108-116 *equal contribution
Mason, T. H. E., & Fortin, D. (2017) Functional responses in animal movement explain spatial heterogeneity in animal-habitat relationships. Journal of Animal Ecology
Mason, T. H. E., Brivio F., Stephens, P.A., Apollonio, M., & Grignolio, S. (2017) The behavioral trade-off between thermoregulation and foraging in a heat-sensitive species. Behavioral Ecology
Dawson, W., Moser, D., van Kleunen, M., Kreft, H., Pergl, J., Pysek, P., Weigelt, P., Winter, M., Lenzner, B., Blackburn, T. M., Dyer, E. E., Cassey, P., Scrivens, S. L., Economo, E. P., Guenard, B., Capinha, C., Seebens, H., Garcia-Diaz, P., Nentwig, W., Garcia-Berthou, E., Casal, C., Mandrak, N. E., Fuller, P., Meyer, C. & Essl, F. (2017). Global hotspots and correlates of alien species richness across taxonomic groups. Nature Ecology and Evolution 1: 0186.
Voskamp, A., Baker, D.J., Stephens, P.A., Valdes, P. & Willis, S.G. (2017) Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds. Journal of Biogeography. DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12916
Cadotte, M.W., Barlow, J., Nunez, M.A., Pettorelli, & Stephens, P.A. (2017) Solving environmental problems in the Anthropocene: the need to bring novel theoretical advances into the applied ecology fold. Journal of Applied Ecology 54, 1-6.
2016
Bagchi, R., Hole, D.G., Butchart, S.H.M., Collingwood, Y.C., Fishpool, L., Plumptre, A., Owiunji, I., Mugabe, H. & Willis, S.G. (2016) Forecasting potential routes for movement of endemic birds among important sites for biodiversity in the Albertine Rift under projected climate change. Ecography
Baker, D.J., Hartley, I., Pearce-Higgins, J., Jones, R. & Willis, S.G. (2016) Neglected issues in using weather and climate information in ecology. Diversity and Distributions
Baker, D. J., Hartley, A. J., Butchart, S. H. M. & Willis, S. G. (2016), Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 22, 2392-2404. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13273
Sanderson, F.J., Pople, R.G., Ieronymidou, C., Burfield, I.J. Gregory, R.D., Willis, S.G., Howard, C., Stephens, P.A., Beresford, A.E. & Donald, P.F. (2016) Assessing the performance of EU nature legislation in protecting target bird species in an era of climate change. Conservation Letters, 9, 172–180. DOI: 10.1111/conl.12196.
Stephens, P.A., L. R. Mason, R. E. Green, R. D. Gregory, J. R. Sauer, J. Alison, A. Aunins, L. Brotons, S. H. M. Butchart, T. Campedelli, T. Chodkiewicz, P. Chylarecki, O. Crowe, J. Elts, V. Escandell, R. P. B. Foppen, H. Heldbjerg, S. Herrando, M. Husby, F. Jiguet, A. Lehikoinen, A. Lindstrom, D. G. Noble, J.-Y. Paquet, J. Reif, T. Sattler, T. Szep, N. Teufelbauer, S. Trautmann, A. J. van Strien, C. A. M. van Turnhout, P. Vorisek, S. G. Willis. (2016) Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents. Science, 352 (6281), 84-87. DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4858
Davis, M.L., Stephens, P.A. & Kjellander, P. (in press) Beyond climate envelope projections: Roe deer survival and environmental change. Journal of Wildlife Management. doi: 10.1002/jwmg.1029.
Stephens, P.A. (2016) Population Viability Analysis. Oxford Bibliographies in Ecology. Ed. David Gibson. New York: Oxford University Press, 25/02/2016. doi: 10.1093/OBO/9780199830060-0142.
Barlow, J., Cadotte, M., Newton, E., Pettorelli, N., Plane, A., Stephens, P.A. & Whittingham, M.J. (2016) Achieving and communicating globally relevant applied ecological research. Journal of Applied Ecology 53, 1-4.
2015
Stephens, P.A. (2015) Land sparing, land sharing, and the fate of Africa’s lions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA. 112, 14753–14754.
Palmer, G., Stephens, P.A., Ward, A.I. & Willis, S.G. (2015) Nationwide trophic cascades: changes in avian community structure driven by ungulates. Nature: Scientific Reports, 5:15602, doi: 10.1038/srep15601.
Howard, C., Stephens, P.A., Pearce-Higgins, J., Gregory, R.A. & Willis, S.G. (2015) The drivers of avian abundance: patterns in the relative importance of climate and land use. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 1249-1260.
Baker, D. Burgess, N.D. Butchart, S.H.M., Carr, J., Hartley, A., Smith, R., Belle, E. & Willis, S.G. (2015) Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West Africa protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections. Diversity and Distributions, 21, 991-1003. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12337.
Willis, S.G., Foden, W.B., Baker, D. Belle, E. Burgess, N.D., Carr, J., Doswald, N., Garcia, R., Hartley, A., Hof, C., Newbold, T., Rahbek, C., Smith, R., Visconti, P., Young, B. & Butchart, S.H.M. (2015) Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution modelling and traits based approaches. Biological Conservation, 190, 167–178. DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.05.001.
Bassi, E. Willis, S.G., Passilongo, D., Mattioli, L. & Apollonio, M. (2015) Predicting the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) breeding areas in a mountainous region of central Italy. PLoS One, 10(6): e0124698. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0124698.
Pacifici, M., Foden, W.B., Visconti, P., Watson, J.E.M., Butchart, S.H.M., Kovacs, K.M., Scheffers, B.R., Hole, D.G. Martin, T.G., Akçakaya, H.R., Corlett, R.T., Huntley, B., Bickford, D., Carr, J.A., Hoffmann, A.A., Midgley, G.F., Pearce-Kelly, P., Pearson, R.G., Williams, S.E., Willis, S.G., Young, B. & Rondini, C. (2014) Assessing species vulnerability to climate change Nature Climate Change, 5, 215-224.
Hindle, B.J., Kerr, C., Richards, S.A. & Willis, S.G. (2015) Topographical variation reduces phenological mismatch between a butterfly and its nectar source. Journal of Insect Conservation, 19, 227-236.
Stephens, P.A., Pettorelli, N., Barlow, J., Whittingham, M.J. & Cadotte, M.W. (2015) Management by proxy? The use of indices in applied ecology. Journal of Applied Ecology, 52, 1-6.
2014
Devenish-Nelson, E.S., Richards, S.A., Harris, S., Soulsbury, C.D. & Stephens, P.A. (2014) Demonstrating frequency-dependent transmission of sarcoptic mange in red foxes. Biology Letters. 10: 20140524.
Mason, T.H.E., Apollonio, M. Chirichella, R., Willis, S.G. & Stephens, P.A. (2014) Environmental change and long-term body mass declines in an alpine mammal. Frontiers in Zoology. 11: 69.
Runge, C.A., Martin, T.G., Possingham, H.P., Willis, S.G. & Fuller, R.A. (2014) Conserving mobile species. Frontiers in Ecology and
Evolution. 12: 395-402.
Nowak, K., le Roux, A., Richards, S.A., Scheijen, C., & Hill, R. (2014) Human observers impact habituated samango monkeys’ perceived landscape of fear. Behavioral Ecology. 25: 1199-1204.
Mason, T.H.E., Stephens, P.A., Apollonio, M. & Willis, S.G. (2014) Predicting potential responses to future climate change in an alpine
ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12641
Howard, C., Stephens, P.A., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Gregory, R.D. & Willis, S.G. (2014) Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance. Methods in Ecology and Evolution doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12184.
Collingham, Huntley, Altwegg, Barnard, Beveridge, Gregory, Mason, Oschadleus, Simmons, Willis & Green (2014), Prediction of mean adult survival rates of southern African birds from demographic and ecological covariates. Ibis, 156: 741–754.
Stephens, P.A., Houston, A.I., Harding, K.C., Boyd, I.L. & McNamara, J.M. 2014. Capital and income breeding: the role of food supply. Ecology. 95: 882–896.
Lawson, C.R., Hodgson, G.A., Wilson, R.J. & Richards, S.A. (2014) Prevalence, thresholds, and the performance of presence-absence models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5: 54-64.
